College Football Lines
CFB: BCS Championship Game: TEXAS vs. ALABAMA (8:10 PM ET, FOX)
2010-01-07
Only one of the last five BCS Championship games was decided by single digits. That game was also the last time the title contest was held in Pasadena. Texas is hoping for an encore performance of that magical night, a 41-38 upset of USC behind quarterback Vince Young. It’s Colt McCoy’s turn now, as he plays his final game for the Longhorns. They are the underdog though, of 3.5-points according to Sportsbook.com. The line has generated heavy action, and over 80% of it has come in on Alabama, according to the BETTING TRENDS page.
He is undefeated in bowl games, part of a five-game bowl winning streak for head coach Mack Brown’s club. Alabama hopes to make the SEC proud by giving the league its sixth title game SU and ATS victory versus no defeats. The Crimson Tide are just 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS in their L8 bowl games, though. They are 5.5-point favorites and the chalk has won two straight title games, snapping a stretch of five straight upsets.
Alabama and Texas have racked up quite a few trophies during the past month. Both teams desperately want to add one more.
In a star-studded, powerhouse matchup of unbeaten teams, the top-ranked Crimson Tide and No. 2 Longhorns meet for the BCS championship at the Rose Bowl on Thursday night.
While fellow undefeated teams TCU, Cincinnati and Boise State may have felt slighted by being shut out of the title game, the BCS could not have delivered a more high-profile matchup. Coach Nick Saban's Tide feature Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram and six first-team All-Americans, while Mack Brown's Longhorns rely on star quarterback Colt McCoy and an equally loaded roster.
Texas (13-0) is seeking its second BCS championship in five years.
Texas, though, faces a daunting task against Alabama (13-0), which dominated defending BCS champion Florida 32-13 in the SEC title game Dec. 5, snapping the then-No. 1 Gators' 22-game winning streak.
No Tide player had more success this season than Ingram, who rushed for a school-record 1,542 yards and 15 touchdowns. The sophomore ran for 113 yards and three scores against Florida to help him claim college football's highest individual honor - the first Heisman for an Alabama player.
Ingram is hoping to lead Alabama to its first national title since 1992.
While the Tide try to pound Texas into submission with a ground game that ranks 12th nationally with 215.8 yards per game, their focus on defense will be McCoy.
The senior, who returned to school this year with hopes of winning a national championship, threw for 3,512 yards and 27 touchdowns while completing 70.5 percent of his passes. The Maxwell Award winner as the nation's best all-around player, who also won the Walter Camp player of the year award, McCoy directs a passing attack that was tied for 14th in the nation with 279.7 yards a game.
McCoy's top target is receiver Jordan Shipley, who had 106 catches for 1,363 yards and 11 scores, though Malcolm Williams, James Kirkendoll and Dan Butler all contributed at least 445 yards receiving.
McCoy also was Texas' second-leading rusher with 348 yards behind Tre' Newton (513), and Cody Johnson rushed for 12 touchdowns. The Longhorns' deep and versatile attack, though, should get its stiffest test of the season from an imposing Alabama defense.
Paced by Butkus Award winner Rolando McClain, the Tide were No. 1 in the country in scoring defense at 11.0 points per game and second in total defense at 241.8 yards a contest. McClain piled up a team-high 101 tackles - 12 1/2 for a loss - along with four sacks and two interceptions.
Alabama boasts a formidable secondary, led by Javier Arenas (12 tackles for loss, five sacks) and Mark Barron (seven interceptions). Sophomore defensive end Marcell Dareus recorded a team-high 6 1/2 of the Tide's 31 sacks.
Defense isn't exactly a weak spot for the Longhorns, either. They ranked first in the country with 62.9 rushing yards allowed per contest and third with 251.8 yards given up per game.
That could put pressure on Alabama's efficient quarterback, Greg McElroy, to come up with a big performance. The junior, who passed for 2,450 yards with 17 touchdowns and four interceptions, faces a Texas team allowing 188.9 yards per game through the air - 23rd in the nation.
The Longhorns topped the Football Bowl Subdivision with 24 interceptions, led by junior Earl Thomas with eight - tied for second in the country - and fellow safety Blake Gideon with five. Texas forced those INTs in part because of a pass rush that racked up 41 sacks, paced by Sam Acho (nine) and Lamarr Houston (seven).
The Longhorns, of course, barely made it to Pasadena, narrowly avoiding an upset by Nebraska in the Big 12 championship game with a 13-12 victory Dec. 5. Hunter Lawrence kicked a 46-yard field goal as time expired after McCoy and Texas nearly allowed the clock to run out on an incomplete pass on the previous play.
A 2008 loss to Texas Tech, coming on an improbable touchdown pass with 1 second left, likely kept the Longhorns from playing for the championship.
Texas did not handle Nebraska's fierce pass rush well, allowing McCoy to be sacked nine times, and Brown hinted at lineup changes after what he saw as a team-wide subpar performance against the Cornhuskers - especially with Alabama's formidable pass rush up next.
Alabama has played in an NCAA-record 57 bowl games and is tied with USC for the most wins with 31. Texas has the second-most bowl appearances with 49.
The Longhorns have dominated the Tide in eight meetings, going 7-0-1. The last matchup came in the 1982 Cotton Bowl, a 14-12 Texas win.
StatFox Steve has this to say about the game: Ask yourself this…throughout this entire season, was there ever a point where you said: Alabama is clearly this year’s national champion? Now sure the Tide has looked dominant at points, but there were also several times where their offense looked like a middle of the pack unit. Texas certainly never had that problem up until the Big 12 championship game. The key is the Longhorns still won, thus setting up a battle of unbeaten teams. In that sense, is one team clearly better than the other here? I say no, and in a game of such high stakes, laying the points with the lesser offensive club just doesn’t make sense. The StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings show Texas at +28.5, Alabama at +22.7. The wrong team may be favored.
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME Series Trend: It’s no secret that the SEC is in search of its fourth straight national title. What people might not know, however, is that SEC teams have never lost in the BCS Championship game in five tries overall, three times pulling the upset as underdogs. The OVER is 4-1 in the last five title games. If the Big 12 has anything going in its favor, and Texas in particular, it’s that the last time this game was played in Pasadena was the famed Texas win over USC in ’05.
CFB: Little Caesars Pizza Bowl - OHIO vs. MARSHALL (1:00 PM ET, ESPN)
2009-12-28
Little Caesar’s Pizza takes over sponsorship of the game more commonly known as the Motor City Bowl. Former conference rivals will square off in the 2009 rendition of the series, as Ohio and Marshall meet. Ohio is a small 2.5-point favorite, and backed by 77% of bettors at Sportsbook.com, according to the BETTING TRENDS page.
The Thundering Herd was a fixture in this game in the late 90s, winning it in ’98, ’99 and 2000. They haven’t been to a bowl game since ’04 however, and make it back to Detroit in ’09 sporting a 6-6 record. While with the MAC, Marshall had won seven of the L8 head-to-head meetings with Ohio, the last one in ’04. The Bobcats are a two-point favorite for this game after finishing 9-4 SU and ATS. They are on an 8-2 spread run overall but have never won a bowl game, going 0-2 (0-1 ATS).
With Mark Snyder having resigned from the head coaching position at Marshall at the end of the 6-6 regular season, this is no time to be backing the Thundering Herd in a bowl game. I have to question whether they are even deserving of being in a bowl game at all. Their StatFox Outplay Factor Rating is -3.4, a full 6.6 points fewer than Ohio’s, and they only averaged 21.8 points per game this season on offense. One of the StatFox Game Estimators also projects about a seven-point win for the Bobcats. Look for Ohio to leave Ford Field this time around with a much happier feeling.
LITTLE CEASARS PIZZA BOWL Series Trend: The Motor City Bowl gets a new name for ’09, with Little Ceasar’s Pizza stepping up to fill the spot. It could be a welcomed change for the MAC, as teams from that conference have gone just 2-5 SU & ATS in the L7 games of the series. In terms of totals, seven of the L10 games have gone UNDER. In past Motor City Bowl games with lines of 6-points or higher, the dog is 3-1 ATS. In those with at less than six, the favorite is 5-3 ATS. Marshall played in this game in ’97, ’98, & ’99, winning the latter two.
Top FoxSheets.com ATS Trend
MARSHALL is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday since 1992. The average score was MARSHALL 23.3, OPPONENT 26.5 - (Rating = 1*)
Top FoxSheets.com Total Super Situation
Play Under - Any team against the total (MARSHALL) - in a bowl game, in a non-conference game between two teams from second tier division 1-A conferences. (34-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (81%, +25.2 units. Rating = 4*)
Find more great betting info on this game on the GAME MATCHUPS page.
CFB: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (12:00 PM ET, ABC)
2009-12-04
The de-facto Big East Championship game is on tap for Saturday afternoon and the winner will cash its coveted BCS ticket. Cincinnati is unbeaten but oddsmakers saw enough in Pittsburgh to establish the Panthers as a 1.5-point home favorite. However, since then, the line at Sportsbook.com has shifted to Cincinnati -2, under the weight of over 85%-plus support on that side of the action.
The Bearcats (6-5 ATS) are perfect 11-0 heading into what is Big East championship contest. Coach Brian Kelly has done a terrific job of keeping all the excitement in perspective, saying “…the program has conceivably has arrived, but it is not built”. Tony Pike is back as the starting quarterback; however Kelly has deftly changed the offense from a passing team, to one that has compiled 180 yards or more rushing in the in four of the last five games. This strategy has worked well in thinking ahead to the potential of inclement weather and given opposing defenses something else to worry about. The defense has worn down as the season progressed, especially against the run, being gouged for over 200 yards in the last two of last three games which will be a focal point Pittsburgh will certainly attack. Cincy is 27-9 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game.
Pittsburgh (9-2, 6-3-1 ATS) is off a confidence deflating loss at West Virginia 19-16 and now like many of the teams playing this weekend for championships, can focus on the task at hand. Coach Dave Wannstedt has taken a lot of grief as head coach in several stops; nevertheless he is to be commended for this job. He built the program his way, defense first and a pro-style offensive attack. He not only was able to get the right players to fit his program, but worked with players that improved each season like QB Bill Stull. He wasn’t afraid to take a chance on dynamic RB Dion Lewis, considered too small by others. The Panthers are 12-5-1 ATS in last 17 lined contests.
Sportsbook.com has seen Pittsburgh go from opening as 1.5-point favorites to two-point underdogs. In order to prove bettors wrong the Panthers must be the more physical team, control the clock with run game and have defensive front pressure Pike. Pittsburgh’s 43 sacks was the best in college football, while Cincinnati has given up nine, the nation's third-fewest. Wanny’s crew really gave a non-effort in loss to West Virginia last week and is 5-1 ATS off a spread loss.
Pittsburgh’s secondary is not as good as its numbers (45th) which provides coach Kelly an opportunity to dissect it, while looking thru companies in South Bend that make business cards. If the offensive line holds up, Pike should carve Pitt up like a surgeon. Pike is the better quarterback in this BCS battle. Defensively, the Cats have to find ways to get off the field, since they lose in slug-fest. Cincy is 28-11-1 ATS as visitors against teams with winning home records.
This series is known as the River City Rivalry and Pittsburgh is 7-1 and 4-1 ATS and the total of this Big East bash is 58.
The StatFox Power Line actually shows Pittsburgh by 5
CFB: Cowboys favored to crush Colorado
2009-11-19
Among the surprises in college football this season is Oklahoma State. Not in the traditional sense, though the possibility of the Cowboys finishing in second place in the Big 12 South does carry some shock value. It is how Oklahoma State has compiled 8-2 record, having a solid defense that is the cause for surprise. On Thursday night, they will be an 18.5-point favorite vs. Colorado according to Sportsbook.com, and bettors are backing the hosts at a near 90% rate. No wonder the opening line has jumped 4.5-points already.
Oklahoma State’s season has been startling, considering their terrific trio has been reduced to basically just one, with quarterback Zac Robinson carrying the burden. All-America receiver Dez Bryant was lost because of a NCAA suspension and running back Kendall Hunter has been slowed by a nagging ankle/foot injuries and only recently has come back to play, lacking his usual explosiveness.
The Cowboys (6-3 ATS) are ranked fourth in the Big 12 in defense and 32nd nationally, surrendering 333.9 yards per game. Okie State has been incredibly stingy on the ground, allowing 89.6 yards per game, good for sixth nationally. Linebacker Patrick Lavine is among those who accepted the challenge once the offense lost several weapons. “He’s a great playmaker for us,” said teammate Andre Sexton, another senior linebacker. “He steps up and makes game-changing plays when we need it.”
Oklahoma State has lost only to Texas in last eight games and is 22-8 ATS in home games after covering the spread in two out of their last three contests. The Cowboys will take on Colorado (3-7, 5-5 ATS), who might have another coach on the sidelines next season.
Dan Hawkins is dismissing reports he’s under fire despite 16-31 record in Boulder. Though Hawkins was brought in to help clean up the program from the scandal-laden days under Gary Barnett and succeeded, big time football isn’t just about getting the players to go to class and keep trouble to a minimum, it’s about winning. This will be the third time in four years with no bowl game for Buffs under Hawkins, who are plagued with inconsistencies and penalties.
This is a burdensome spot Colorado, having lost at Iowa State 17-10 on Saturday and having to playing another road game on a short week. Under Hawkins, the Buffs are 4-12 ATS after scoring 14 points or less and 4-13 against the spread after playing their last game on the road.
Sportsbook.com has Oklahoma State as 18.5-point home favorites with total of 48, suggesting a final score of roughly 33-15. If that score appears to low, than the fact the Cowboys are 11-3 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons and 13-4-2 ATS at home in November should be more comforting. Colorado doesn’t look to be in a very good situation and 6-15 ATS road record backs up that point up. However, for those that see the glass half full as opposed to half empty, the Buffalos are 4-0 ATS catching 17 or more points in last four tries.
ESPN of course will have this telecast at 7:45 Eastern, with Chris Fowler watching his alma mater. (Colorado if you didn’t know) In the last 17 encounters between these squads, the SU winner has won by 10 or more points 14 times.
StatFox Power Line – Oklahoma State by 24
CFB: Virginia Tech the play vs. UNC?
2009-10-29
The calendar shows Virginia Tech on Thursday night, this can mean only one thing, time to profit. If you are a serious college football sports bettor, you know that the Hokies have proven a solid bet on Thursday nights, as Frank Beamer’s team is 14-3 against the number the last 11 years. Tonight’s opponent is North Carolina, and Sportsbook.com has listed Tech as a 16.5-point home favorite in this ACC dual. That number seems to have done its job, as action on the BETTING TRENDS page shows nearly a 50/50 split at last check.
It’s understandable if you might be a little skitterish about laying 16.5 (at Sportsbook.com) on Virginia Tech, after watching them get plowed under for 309 yards by Georgia Tech and North Carolina stepping on Florida state for a cool 238 last week, however, comparing the Yellow Jackets option offense to North Carolina’s running game is like comparing to Erin Andrews to Chastity Bono. GT is second in the country running the ball and the Tar Heels are 86th even after crossing the 200-yard barrier last week. On that note, they are 1-7 ATS after gaining 200 or more yards rushing the pigskin.
North Carolina players still have to be reeling, blowing a 24-6 third quarter lead near the Dean Dome last Thursday vs. Florida State. The Tar Heels actually do have decent defensive talent and have held all teams not named Georgia Tech and Florida State to 17 points or less.
Frank Beamer has had a few extra days to coach up his downtrodden team since being stung by the Yellow Jackets. The Hokies are 12-6 ATS off a bye week and 7-2 against oddsmakers if the opponent has positive record.
Quarterback Tyrod Taylor isn’t Jimmy Clausen, nonetheless is an improving passer and has been sharp occasionally. With North Carolina offering up one of the six worst offenses in the country and already 0-5 (2-3 ATS) against Virginia Tech since they’ve joined the Atlantic Coast Conference five years ago, common sense says to take the Hokies to start a fun-filled Halloween weekend 34-10 and cover convincingly.
The StatFox Power Ratings show VTech -18, a rare case where a favorite might be underpriced by Sportsbook.com.